Fun with Numbers - Is Lutfur Rahman Innumerate or Just Putting a Favourable Spin on Tower Hamlets' Crime Figures?

Posted on | Sunday, 22 July 2012 | No Comments

On the subject of Crime, the Mayor has informed us, variously:

Mayor"I know that crime and the fear of crime is an issue for our borough even though crime is falling - 2.7% drop in overall crime (744 fewer crimes), including knife crime – down by 10.4% since the previous year (50 fewer incidents)" Tower Hamlets Web site Community safety

"Overall crime is down 30% since 2003"  East End Life, 9 July 2012

"In the last three years overall crime has dropped by more than 23%" Tower Hamlets Web site Crime prevention

(Note: the picture of THEOs comes courtesy of EEL: their agenda seems to be to link them, not the Met with any perceived crime reduction)

Now, the above statements by Lutfur Rahman are all pretty impressive, if taken on face value. I mean to say, 'overall crime down more than 20% over the last 3 years'. That's a huge turnaround. One can't deny it's a staggeringly profound achievement - am I right? Yet some may say this is all propaganda, even intentionally meant to deceive. But what possible grounds would detractors have for challenging these figures? Surely Lutfur Rahman wouldn't lie on a matter as serious as crime statistics in the Borough - would he?

Perhaps we should consider the official Metropolitan Police figures as grounds to challenge the Mayor's version? You decide..


Here is an extract of the official crime statistics for the Borough courtesy of the Metropolitan Police DoI Reporting Service:


Tower Hamlets       Offences
     2005                 22,560
     2006                 29,677
     2007                 29,385
     2008                 26,811
     2009                 25,684
     2010                 26,884
     2011                 28,110


You don't need to graph this data to see that crime in Tower Hamlets has actually been on the increase since 2010.... Hang on, isn't that when Lutfur Rahman took office as Mayor?


Reference: Freedom of Information Request Crime Statistics Tower Hamlets 2005 - 2012

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